Nathan Beighle
March 23, 2022 8:31 pm ET
With the first weekend of March Madness behind us, it’s time to prepare for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight tipping off Thursday through Sunday.
After looking at NCAA Tournament odds and lines, here are the best Sweet 16 upset picks among our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Thursday and Friday could be a couple of the season’s most exciting days as the Sweet 16 takes place. With all eyes set on who will make the trip to New Orleans for the Final Four, fans and bettors should be laser focused on which underdogs could continue their NCAA Championship dreams.
For the Sweet 16, there are three No. 1 seeds still remaining in Gonzaga, Arizona and Kansas, which rank 1-3 in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports, respectively.
Defending champion Baylor is the lone No. 1 seed that didn’t make it to the Sweet 16. Plus, two No. 2 seeds – Auburn and Kentucky – went down in the second and first round, respectively.
With that in mind, fans should prepare for some more chaos as the Sweet 16 tips off Thursday at 7:09 p.m. ET.
NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 upset picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 8:26 p.m. ET.
Duke +1.5 (-122) vs. Texas Tech – Thursday, 9:39 p.m. ET
Duke might be the higher seed as a No. 2, but it is still underdogs in its Sweet 16 battle with third-seeded Texas Tech.
Tech’s dominant defense ranks No. 1 in adjusted-defensive efficiency per KenPom. If there’s any team able to best the Red Raiders, it’s the well-coached Blue Devils who sit fourth in adjusted-offensive efficiency.
Duke ranks 42nd in opponents’ effective field-goal rate and 10th in eFG%. It is also playing its best basketball, taking down head coach Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans in the second round.
It’s understandable to favor the defensive-minded Red Raiders, but scoring can win games as well, and the Blue Devils will have the most versatile player on the court in F Paolo Banchero.
Couple that with the fact that Duke went to Notre Dame, a team Texas Tech struggled with in its second-round matchup, and beat the Fighting Irish by 14 earlier in the season, and I think the Blue Devils come out on top in this one.
I could see playing the Blue Devils’ -105 money line instead of taking the 1.5 points to avoid the extra juice.
Houston +1.5 (-107) vs. Arizona – Thursday, 9:59 p.m. ET
The Houston Cougars, one of the most underrated teams coming into the tourney, match up very well against Arizona’s weaknesses.
In its second-round battle with TCU, Arizona gave up 20 offensive rebounds. Houston is the No. 1 team in the nation in offensive rebounding rate. It’s going to abuse Arizona on the boards in this one.
Also, Houston is among the mere two programs in the nation that rank top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
Much like Baylor from a year ago, the Cougars are a defense-first bunch. Houston will make life very difficult for Arizona star G Bennedict Mathurin, who averaged 24.0 points per game through the first two rounds.
Providence +7.5 (-112) vs. Kansas – Friday, 7:29 p.m. ET
The Providence Friars rank No. 1 in KenPom’s luck factor, probably a good a reason why they weren’t heavily bet on in their opening two games. This time around, let’s look at that in a different light.
The Friars are 4-0 ATS when 5-point or greater underdogs.They might be lucky, but they keep games close.
They’re also a complete team with both playmaking guards and a high-efficiency big man in C Nate Watson. They’re actually 3-1 straight up when giving that type of spread.
The Jayhawks are 5-4 ATS over their last nine outings, failing to cover recently against Creighton as 13.5-point favorites in a 79-72 second-round victory. Against a well-balanced Providence team, I expect an even closer game.
Also, the Friars are playing at a high level, crushing Richmond (79-51) – which took down Iowa in the first round – and beating South Dakota State by 9 in their opener.
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