March Madness 2022 Predictions: Best Upset Picks for Every Men's Region (2024)

It's all fun and games until you're sitting in a pile of your own bracket confetti.

Why did you pick teams based on uniform color? You didn't have to do it that way. Picking upsets is one of the best parts of the Big Dance; it's even better with a side of basketball IQ.

Here we bring you the juiciest and in our view likeliest upset picks in the field of 68. We're thinking big here, so only No. 11 seeds or lower need apply.

Since these are educated guesses, all eight are absolutely guaranteed to hit. Right? Even if not, they'll add spice to your picks and maybe earn us all some bragging rights and/or cash.

Games listed in no particular order.Odds of winning courtesy ofBPI. Unless otherwise noted, stats and rankings are courtesy ofSports ReferenceandKenPom.

Odds to reach the round of 32: 33.7 percent

This game assumes the Hoosiers made it past Wyoming in the play-in round, but if they can do that, they'll have a chance against a slightly overrated Saint Mary's team.

Stars matter this time of year, and Indiana has a burgeoning entry in Trayce Jackson-Davis. In three Big Ten tournament games against three tournament teams, the 6'9" junior forward averaged 25.3 points on 34-of-51 (66.7 percent) shooting, both well above his respective season averages of 18.1 points on 58.9 percent shooting.

After Jackson-Davis, their production drops off, with only two other Hoosiers scoring in double figures. But there's a flip side to the coin. While Saint Mary's is known for its defense—ninth nationallyin the adjusted rankings—Indiana isn't far behind at No. 21. They hold opponents to just 39.1 shooting from the floor, which lands them at 17th nationally.

With the Gaels playing a profoundly down-tempo offense, if Indiana can bother some early looks, Saint Mary's may find itself in a hole they're ill-equipped to climb out of.

Odds of reaching the round of 32: 40.1 percent

Think of Vermont as a mini-Gonzaga.

The Catamounts' strength of schedule is putrid atNo. 330, but on the flip side they laid waste to all comers, tearing a 17-1 hole in the America East conference.

Perhaps even more similiarly is the Vermont's effective field goal percentage, which puts the Catamounts fourth in the nation with a downright Bulldoggian57.2 percent.

And this is to say nothing of Vermont leading scorer Ryan Davis, whose hair stylings recall the intrepid choices of one Drew Timme.

But enough hardcore analysis.Unlike Gonzaga, the Catamounts are not the best three-point shooting team by nature, preferring to score inside the arc, where they're third-best nationally with a 59.1 percent clip.

They'll need to connect early and often against Arkansas' swarming attack, but they've got the tools to get it done.

Odds to reach the round of 32: 73.1 percent

The odds tell a different story than the seeds, but if the selection committee considers this an upset, so do we. It boils down to the luck of the draw, and Colorado State got a bad hop with this matchup.

David Roddy is the linchpin for the Rams, pouring in 19.3 points, 7.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. He's been fairly consistent down the stretch.

But Michigan may have too much firepower for the Rams, particularly in the form of 7'1" big man Hunter Dickinson and his 18.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. James Moors will draw the assignment of guarding Dickinson, but he doesn't appear to have the size or skill to consistently stop Dickinson. And there's no cavalry coming. CSU has a lot of bodies they can throw at you (10 guys average double-digit minutes), but none besides Moors are taller than 6'9".

The mercurial Wolverines were lucky to make this tournament, but now that they're here, they'll be hard for CSU to handle. They're neck and neck on offensive production (CSU is No. 19 in the KenPom rankings, while Michigan is No. 20), so this should be an entertaining game. It's just too big of a mismatch for the Rams to overcome.

Odds of reaching the round of 32: 23.1 percent

The pride of the Southern Conference faces one of the more intriguing teams to come out of the Big Ten this season.

Last year, as a No. 1 seed, the Illini were upended in the round of 32 by Loyola-Chicago. Big man Kofi co*ckburn has been working all season to get back to the dance, and he'll be the best player on the floor when these two lock up. But they function extremely well as a unit. TheirNo. 30 defenseis likely underrated, as they played against one of the country's most challenging strengths of schedule from an offensive standpoint.

co*ckburn and company are on a mission, but the Mocs are coiled and ready. No one should pretend Chattanooga is the livest of dogs here. Lots of things will have to go right for the Mocs to have a chance.

But they score, rebound and defend as a team, and their guards should get inside and give co*ckburn fits all game. Senior Kansas transfer Silvio De Sousa has the size and tenacity to keep co*ckburn from playing bully ball.

The most intriguing part of the matchup could be in the backcourt. Chattanooga's David Jean-Baptiste and Malachi Smith can both score in a variety of ways and can take care of the basketball, leading an offense that commits just 11 turnovers per game. For Illinois, Trent Frazier and Alfonso Plummer often find themselves in co*ckburn's broad shadow but still combine for a respectable 26.9 points and 5.2 assists per game.

If the Mocs can frustrate co*ckburn and force the rest of the Illini to beat them, they could find themselves within striking distance.

Odds to reach the round of 32: 48.9 percent

Virginia Tech was barely in the bubble discussion just two weeks ago. This No. 11 seed pretty much confirmed that the Hokies needed to win its first-ever ACC tournament title in order to reach the big dance.

Is this a mega-talented team? Nope. But they know how to play together, share the ball and create favorable matchups on the floor.

Meanwhile, Texas has had trouble scoring (and winning) of late. They’ve lost three straight and five of eight, during which stretch they’ve managed just 67.4 points per game. And their effective field goal percentage is at 50 percent, good for just206thin the country.

The Hokies are on the other end of the momentum spectrum, having won seven of their last eight after being 2-7 in ACC play at one point. This is not the same team, and the Longhorns are about to learn that the hard way.

Odds of reaching the round of 32: 9.8 percent

New Mexico State is as deep as the midnight sky over Las Cruces.

Only one guy on the 15-man roster plays fewer than nine minutes a game, with 11 averaging double digits in minutes played. With planning time at a minimum and conditioning at a premium, New Mexico State would appear to have a built-in tournament advantage on both ends of the floor.

The Aggies are hard to keep out of the paint as they rank 38th nationally in total rebounds with 38.5 and 27th with 55.4 percent shooting from inside the arc. They put it all together at the end of the regular season with a three-game win streak that netted them the WAC tournament championship.

By contrast, UConn lost their groove a bit down the stretch with a 2-2 record over its last four. They're a No. 5 team for a reason, with a balanced offense behind All-Big East first-teamers R.J. Cole and Adama Sanogo. But they're a bit top-heavy, with the duo combining to score 40.7 percent of the team's points.

This New Mexico State team could be poised, almost literally, to run them down.

Odds of reaching the round of 32: 40 percent

Just lucky to be here.

Nowhere else on this bracket does that phrase apply more than it does right here to the Providence Friars, who are tops in all the land in KenPom'sluck ratings.

The team was a media darling in the midwinter months for a series of nailbiters and come-from-behind thrillers. Their average margin of victory this season was a grand total of 4.8 points. In a crucial span of 11 days in February, they went 3-1, with all three wins needing at least one overtime.

No one can do it forever, and there are indications the wheels are coming off in Rhode Island. They've dropped two of their last three, including an 85-58 shellacking to Creighton in the Big East semis that saw the Friars manage just 30.8 percent from the floor.

The Jackrabbits, meanwhile, have all the energy in the world, having just bulldozed their way to an 18-0 record in the Summit League. Not impressed with the Summit League? Maybe you'll appreciate SDSU's national rankings, which reveal nothing less than an offensive dynamo: first in effective field-goal percentage (60.4), first in three-point percentage (44.9), second in points per game (86.7),12thin KenPom's adjusted offensive rankings.

If the Friars are going to fend off this would-be Cinderella, they'll need more than luck.

Odds of reaching the round of 32: 27.2 percent

If you like defensive battles, get ready for a gem.Iron forges iron, or whatever the phrase is.

LSU sitsfifthon KenPom's adjusted defensive rankings, but ISU lurks only five spots below. The Cyclones allow a scant 63 points per game; the Tigers surrender 63.5.

The strength-of-schedules also are much alike, with the SEC and Big 12 both bringing six squads into the dance. LSU, the SEC product, had the28th-toughestschedule per KenPom, while Iowa State, perhaps surprisingly, is at 17th.

Iowa State also did reasonably well against that demanding schedule, logging a 9-8 record against Q1 opponents versus 6-9 for LSU.

The problem for ISU is that they ended their season on a three-game losing streak. They also have a hard time scoring, ranked151ston KenPom's adjusted offensive rankings compared with a better-if-unspectacular 89th for LSU. ISU only managed 36 points on March 2 against Oklahoma State and 41 on March 10 against Texas Tech. These are not encouraging statistics.

And yet, anything can happen in a rock fight. Although they're slumping of late, Iowa State has the defense to keep the Tigers under wraps and, if they can figure out a way to get the ball through the hoop a few times, pull off the upset.