"March Madness" gets its moniker for a reason. Each year, the NCAA basketball tournaments are filled with upsets that shake up the fields and rattle bracket pools.
It's almost statistically impossible to get a bracket 100% correct.
The 2022 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament is shaping up to be no different. Following the announcement of the field, already three double-digit teams are listed as favorites, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, and several other teams are within striking distance of their single-digit foes.
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Though many have tried to come close, no one is better at accurately predicting the most likely winner for games than Vegas odds. Even the best models can only come close to matching the success rate bookmakers have at predicting winners in games.
Picking that first-round upset is one of the first major steps to getting the edge on the other brackets in annual pools, and Sporting News is diving into some of the matchups that look the most primed for an upset in the 2022 field based on the Vegas odds.
Here's a breakdown of some upset picks waiting to happen.
March Madness upset predictions 2022
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
No. 11 Michigan (-2) vs. No. 6 Colorado State
There were some surprised to see the 17-14 Wolverines reach the tournament at all, let alone as high as a No. 11 seed. Yet despite its less-than-sterling record, Michigan is not a team to sleep on. Bookmakers have them with the best odds to beat their favorite among double-digit seeded teams.
Kenpom.com has only a marginal lead for the Rams, while TeamRankings has a larger advantage for Colorado State. Michigan played a tougher schedule during the season, however, and returns several talents from last year's team, including center Hunter Dickinson, while Colorado State has no players with NCAA tournament experience.
No. 10 San Francisco (-1.5) vs. No. 7 Murray State
This time, Kenpom and TeamRankings seem to both be in agreement with the odds. The Dons are favored by 1.5 over the Racers, and both sites have the other as a favorite to win. Kenpom has San Francisco with adjusted efficiency margin nearly two points ahead of Murray State, while TeamRankings' power ratings and game simulator both give San Francisco a higher chance of winning than Murray State's advantages in the decision tree and similar games.
While Murray State's numbers on paper would seem to favor the Racers, the Dons have played a significantly harder schedule. And even if Murray State is riding a 20-game winning streak, it has had little experience playing against top-tier competition this season (only three opponents reached the tournament), and could be in for a tough game against San Francisco.
MORE:Murray State or San Francisco? How to pick the 10 vs. 7 matchup in 2022 March Madness bracket
No. 10 Loyola Chicago (-1) vs. No. 7 Ohio State
Any time Loyola Chicago reaches the NCAA tournament, it is seemingly always one of the hardest opponents to take down. Back in 2018, it reached the Final Four as an 11 seed and the Sweet Sixteen in 2021 as an eight seed. Sister Jean's squad is back in the tournament at No. 10, and enters facing an Ohio State team that is cold in its most recent matchups.
This is one where Kenpom and TeamRankings are split on who the favorite should be. Pomeroy has the Ramblers as a better team by nearly two points in adjusted efficiency margin, while TeamRankings likes the experience and offense of the Buckeyes to get the win.Loyola Chicago earned the automatic bid by winning its conference tournament, while Ohio State has lost four of its last five, including one to a Nebraska team that finished the season 10-22.
MORE: Print your 2022 March Madness bracket here
No. 11 Virginia Tech (+1) vs. No. 6 Texas
The Hokies have already added some chaos to March with its stunning run to an ACC tournament title, beating Duke by 15 and picking up wins against other NCAA tournament-bound foes in Notre Dame and North Carolina along the way. After starting the season 10-10, the Hokies went 9-2 down the stretch of the regular season before ending with the four tournament wins.
Despite the hot play, Kenpom and TeamRankings aren't buying into the Hokies just yet. Kenpom has Texas ranked as the No. 15 team in the nation, while Virginia Tech is back at No. 23. TeamRankings gives the Longhorns the edge in its predictors and most power rankings. While Texas has lost three straight, it has also played in a more challenging conference and displayed more consistency throughout the season than the Hokies.
HISTORY OFUPSETS BY SEED:
15 vs. 2| 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
No. 10 Miami (+1) vs. No. 7 USC
Bookmakers think the Hurricanes could bring a storm to Southern California. Kenpom and TeamRankings don't think that's quite as likely. While Kenpom likes the offense of the Hurricanes better by about four points, it gives nearly a six-point advance to the defense of the Trojans. TeamRankings agrees that while the offense favors Miami slightly, the defense is a lop-sided advantage to the Trojans.
Still, recent momentum has favored Miami slightly as the Hurricanes have won three of their last four, with the lone loss coming in a narrow defeat to Duke in the ACC tournament. While USC had a six-game winning streak late in the season, it was since lost three of its last four, including two double-digit losses to NCAA tournament teams in Arizona and UCLA.
No. 10 Davidson (+2) vs. No. 7 Michigan State
By all accounts, this matchup already has the look of a nail-biter. Along with a one-score difference in the point spread, Michigan State and Davidson grade out as two nearly identical teams. Kenpom has the Spartans as a more efficient team by just 0.07, while TeamRankings gives Michigan State just a slim advantage in each of its predictors.
The strength of schedule shows that Michigan State has endured the tougher road to the tournament, but Davidson's 27-6 record and high-powered offense have made it stand out on paper as the better team based on the schedule it has played in. This matchup feels like a toss-up.
MORE:March Madness odds 2022: Updated odds for every team to win the NCAA Tournament
No. 13 South Dakota State (+2) vs. No. 4 Providence
There aren't many teams that can keep up with the offense of the Jackrabbits. No Division I team has scored more points than the 2,948 dropped by South Dakota State, and no team exceeds the 60.4 effective field goal percentage. But it also has not faced another tournament-bound team since it lost to Alabama 104-88 in the second game of the season. Now, it will have to face Big East regular-season champion Providence.
The Friars are favored to slow down the Jackrabbits by both TeamRankingsand KenPom. South Dakota State has had its issues on defense this season, and while Providence hasn't been dominant on offense, it has faced a far tougher schedule, facing teams like Villanova, Creighton, Xavier and Marquette down the stretch of the season.
No. 12 New Mexico State (+7) vs. No. 5 UConn
The No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchups always feel like prime upset territory, but this year, the field doesn't seem quite as strong there. While the Saint Mary's vs. Indiana/Wyoming matchup hasn't yet been settled, New Mexico State is the only 12-seed currently with less than a nine-point spread between itself and its five-seed counterpart.
Kenpom is big on the Huskies, having ranked them 18th overall with an adjusted efficiency margin of 19.33, while New Mexico State ranks 81st (10.10). TeamRankings also favors UConn in this matchup at over a 70 percent chance to win.
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No. 14 Colgate (+7) vs. No. 3 Wisconsin
The lowest seeded team to appear on this list, Colgate could make some serious history if it could pull off the upset. Only 22 14-seeds have beaten the No. 3 team in its regional, and it has only happened twice in the last five tournaments (one instance coming in last season's tournament). But Colgate finds itself as the only team within a 15-point spread, let alone single-digits.
It should still come as no surprise that both TeamRankings and KenPom have a significant gap between the two teams. TeamRankings has Wisconsin with more than an 80 percent chance to win, while KenPom has the Badgers with an adjusted efficiency margin more than 11 points better than the Raiders. But given the slimmer-than-most point spreads, this could be one of those matchups to keep an eye on as a matchup where Vegas seems to know something else about the game.
For more insight on all of these matchups, check out the TeamRankings Predictor Tool below. TeamRankings subscribers also receive access to customized, data-driven picks for their bracket pools.
